«France’s Nuclear Strategy: Evolution and Current Trends»
Students Name: Kalushko Halyna
Qualification Level: magister
Speciality: International Relations
Institute: Institute of the Humanities and Social Sciences
Mode of Study: full
Academic Year: 2025-2026 н.р.
Language of Defence: ukrainian
Abstract: France’s nuclear strategy occupies a unique place in the European and global security system, remaining one of the main instruments for ensuring strategic stability on the continent. The importance of French nuclear deterrence is growing against the backdrop of the transformation of the international system, the weakening of arms control regimes, and the emergence of new threats, which highlights the need for a thorough analysis of its evolution and current content. Study object is France’s nuclear strategy as a phenomenon of international relations and security. Scope of research – the theoretical and methodological foundations and historiography of research on France’s nuclear strategy, the evolution of the content and doctrinal provisions of French nuclear deterrence, as well as current trends in the development of French nuclear policy. Goal of research is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the genesis, current state, and prospects of France’s nuclear strategy from the perspective of epistemology and historiography, in particular, to identify the peculiarities of the French approach to nuclear deterrence, assess its evolution in a historical context, and determine the role and place of French nuclear potential in the European security system at the beginning of the 21st century. The master’s thesis examines France’s nuclear strategy as a key instrument for ensuring national security and stability in Europe. The French model of deterrence is based on the principles of strategic autonomy, “strict sufficiency,” and maintaining sovereign control over nuclear forces, which makes it unique among other nuclear powers [2]. It should be noted that the evolution of France’s nuclear policy—from the formation of the force de frappe during the de Gaulle era to the current modernization of its naval and air components—reflects its adaptation to transformations in the international system, the degradation of arms control regimes, and new threats [4]. The current stage of development of French nuclear strategy is characterized by a strengthening of the European dimension of deterrence, manifested in openness to strategic dialogue with EU and NATO partners and the concept of “extended solidarity,” while not renouncing full national sovereignty in decision-making [1]. Strategic reviews, doctrinal speeches by presidents, parliamentary reports, and the activities of the CEA, DGA, and the defense-industrial complex, which ensure the modernization of forces and the preservation of their reliability, play a key role in the formation and implementation of nuclear policy. Future scenarios for the development of France’s nuclear strategy for 2025–235 envisage maintaining a two-component structure, technological modernization, and integration into a multi-domain environment, which will determine its role in the European and global security system. There are three main scenarios for the development of France’s nuclear strategy. The first, basic scenario envisages maintaining the existing doctrine of “strict sufficiency” with gradual modernisation of existing nuclear delivery systems. It focuses on ensuring stability, continuity of management and control, and maintaining sovereignty in decision-making in crisis situations [6]. The second, optimistic scenario, involves the active introduction of innovative technologies, including new carriers and means of cyber and space surveillance [3]. The third, stress scenario, involves active adaptation to the growth of global risks and crisis situations. In this case, modernisation proceeds at a faster pace, communication with allies and control over deterrence signals are strengthened. At the same time, the main goal remains unchanged – to maintain the controllability of nuclear potential and ensure the security of national sovereignty in complex geopolitical conditions [5]. Thus, the study confirms that France’s nuclear strategy continues to play a key role in ensuring national and European security, adapting to contemporary challenges and technological transformations. Development scenarios outline potential directions for modernization and integration into a multi-domain environment, emphasizing France’s strategic autonomy. Keywords: France’s nuclear strategy; deterrence; strategic autonomy; European security; modernization of nuclear forces. References. 1. Chevreuil, A. (2025, July 7) European Deterrence at a Crossroads: French and British Nuclear Options. The Washington Quarterly, 48:2, 115-132, DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2025.2514975 2. Kristensen, H. M., Korda, M., Johns, E., & Knight-Boyle, M. (2025, July 15). French nuclear weapons, 2025. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 81. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2025.2524251#d1e460 3. MBDA. (2019, April 3). Opening of the new MBDA data centre (ASN4G in-service 2035). MBDA. https://www.mbda-systems.com/opening-new-mbda-data-centre 4. Mongin, D. (Janvier, 2025). La Direction des Applications Militaires au c?ur de la dissuasion nucleaire francaise: de l’ere des pionniers au programme Simulation. CEA/DAM. https://www.cea.fr/presse/Documents/actualites/direction-applications-militaires-cea-dissuasion-nucleaire-france.pdf 5. SIPRI. (2025, June 16). Press release – Nuclear risks grow as new arms race looms. SIPRI Yearbook 2025. https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/WNF%202025%20PR%20FRE.pdf 6. Tertrais, B. (2020). French nuclear deterrence policy, forces, and future: A handbook (Recherches & Documents No. 04/2020). Fondation pour la Recherche Strategique. https://www.frstrategie.org/sites/default/files/documents/publications/recherches-et-documents/2020/202004.pdf